Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +18 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | UK -10.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -7.4 (+10.6) | 146.3 (-10.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -8.5 (+9.5) | 149.0 (-13.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -8.7 (+9.3) | 151.6 (-15.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -9.3 (+8.7) | 151.0 (-15.0) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 14-6 |
| Home | 18-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.6 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#28) | 7.7 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#175) | 2.21 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#169) | 3.36 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#211) | 0.639 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 45.1% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 44.3% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 10.4% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 79.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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