Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -33.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +24 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -27.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -25.4 (-1.4) | 146.3 (+3.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -20.3 (+3.7) | 146.7 (+3.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -23.1 (+0.9) | 145.1 (+4.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -23.8 (+0.2) | 148.4 (+1.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | BING |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 5-8 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#5) | -0.6 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#129) | 0.11 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#129) | -0.06 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#214) | 0.450 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | BING |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 43.9% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 13.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 35.4% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 34.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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