And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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53–28 on winners spread MAE 10.1 81 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Ohio @ Kentucky +8.5 149.0 73% 59–77 ✓
Auburn @ South Florida +0.6 132.7 45% 58–52 ✗
Marquette @ West Virginia +2.2 143.7 62% 82–71 ✗
Lehigh @ Merrimack +5.5 128.5 70% 45–55 ✓
Radford @ Furman +15.8 142.5 88% 64–81 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Robert Morris +7.9 139.7 77% 74–70 ✗
Idaho State @ Nebraska +4.8 136.2 66% 60–78 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Minnesota +11.9 141.9 84% 49–78 ✓
UMass Lowell @ George Washington +3.7 136.0 65% 67–56 ✗
George Mason @ James Madison +0.1 138.9 49% 64–67 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Fordham +8.2 135.3 77% 75–73 ✗
Coppin State @ Virginia +5.4 131.4 69% 52–68 ✓
Belmont @ Kennesaw State +0.1 145.8 45% 97–78 ✗
North Alabama @ Manhattan -1.0 137.3 49% 51–55 ✗
East Carolina @ Old Dominion -5.6 133.8 28% 73–60 ✓
Hampton @ Wofford +10.6 141.7 84% 60–77 ✓
Arkansas State @ Southeast Missouri State +9.6 156.1 83% 72–60 ✗
UMBC @ Western Carolina +0.8 142.4 53% 91–75 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Stephen F. Austin -0.7 135.9 39% 74–87 ✗
Niagara @ SIU Edwardsville -1.5 142.6 43% 70–60 ✓
Lafayette @ Duke +24.8 150.8 91% 55–88 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Memphis +20.5 150.8 91% 62–74 ✓
Oakland @ Alabama +5.9 141.7 66% 59–86 ✓
Southern @ South Dakota +0.8 141.8 52% 68–71 ✓
Florida International @ Green Bay -9.7 129.3 20% 63–60 ✓
Rice @ LSU New Orleans +2.0 141.6 57% 83–78 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Colorado +2.9 144.3 65% 67–63 ✗
Stetson @ Lamar +4.3 144.8 68% 60–59 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Northwestern State +3.8 145.7 65% 83–64 ✗
Bellarmine @ Gonzaga +18.5 152.4 89% 50–92 ✓
Ole Miss @ Elon -5.0 145.2 28% 74–56 ✓
Cal Poly @ Santa Clara +17.9 141.7 89% 57–87 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Georgia +7.6 134.1 76% 88–78 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ San Diego +7.1 145.3 76% 57–55 ✗
UTEP @ Pacific +3.7 140.6 64% 73–64 ✗
Wichita State @ Arizona +11.7 138.3 82% 78–82 ✓
Michigan @ UNLV -10.0 130.5 20% 74–61 ✓
Binghamton @ UConn +20.3 146.7 90% 63–87 ✓
Bryant @ Bethune-Cookman -2.8 146.4 38% 75–81 ✗
Monmouth @ Saint Joseph's -1.4 147.2 36% 87–75 ✓
Villanova @ Tennessee -0.7 154.6 46% 71–53 ✓
Stanford @ Baylor +15.3 146.1 88% 48–86 ✓
Richmond @ Drake +17.8 153.0 88% 70–73 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Quinnipiac +12.7 142.3 88% 65–76 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Youngstown State +8.8 145.8 81% 69–66 ✗
Howard @ High Point -3.6 154.4 39% 63–73 ✗
UCF @ Evansville -1.4 130.4 36% 75–59 ✓
Northern Arizona @ UT Rio Grande Valley -5.1 141.3 28% 89–87 ✓
Austin Peay @ Dayton +1.5 129.7 51% 87–81 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Louisville +9.1 142.4 81% 67–73 ✓
Canisius @ Cleveland State +3.7 133.8 62% 70–80 ✓
Rider @ Buffalo +11.5 151.2 86% 65–87 ✓
Holy Cross @ Air Force +3.2 130.2 64% 53–72 ✓
UT Martin @ Troy -0.1 139.6 49% 67–80 ✗
Utah Tech @ Cal State Northridge +2.7 141.0 61% 73–79 ✓
Bradley @ Brown +1.5 137.1 56% 62–65 ✓
Purdue @ North Carolina -6.6 160.0 29% 93–84 ✓
Montana State @ New Mexico +7.4 161.4 77% 78–81 ✓
UIC @ Loyola Chicago +21.7 152.3 90% 63–80 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Delaware State +3.4 124.2 59% 67–63 ✗
Chattanooga @ VCU +1.9 124.1 52% 56–54 ✗
Army @ La Salle -4.5 146.3 28% 58–61 ✗
Chicago State @ UC Santa Barbara +10.6 135.9 83% 50–81 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Wake Forest +11.7 136.3 82% 63–87 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Central Arkansas -1.4 153.9 46% 67–70 ✗
Niagara @ St. Thomas +1.9 150.0 59% 67–76 ✓
Hampton @ Georgia Southern +8.2 132.1 79% 66–86 ✓
Radford @ Navy +3.6 129.6 64% 33–47 ✓
UMBC @ Longwood +13.3 141.6 86% 55–82 ✓
Georgia State @ William & Mary -8.6 149.9 21% 77–59 ✓
Mercer @ Saint Louis +18.3 148.0 89% 58–75 ✓
Texas Tech @ Incarnate Word -13.6 144.5 14% 84–62 ✓
Colgate @ Syracuse +12.6 143.8 84% 100–85 ✗
Utah @ Boston College -0.8 132.2 45% 68–61 ✓
VMI @ Marist +6.1 146.8 72% 74–78 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan State +16.8 149.8 88% 59–83 ✓
Duquesne @ Colorado +8.9 141.1 81% 76–84 ✓
San José State @ Texas +16.5 141.3 88% 45–79 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ St. John's +26.1 146.2 91% 74–87 ✓
North Dakota @ Florida Atlantic +11.2 147.8 84% 79–98 ✓
Manhattan @ Liberty +5.1 128.4 69% 76–60 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.