That man could give a fuck about the grin on your face as you walk by randy as a goat. "Never Say Never" - Romeo Void
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–16 on winners spread MAE 10.8 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Bucknell @ Illinois State +7.8 153.0 77% 100–105 ✓
Western Carolina @ American University +0.9 146.6 55% 80–79 ✗
Tulsa @ Rhode Island +7.1 135.7 78% 77–71 ✗
UAlbany @ Eastern Kentucky +10.9 141.9 85% 64–77 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Alabama State +3.0 141.6 62% 74–80 ✓
Western Illinois @ DePaul +12.0 154.8 80% 80–84 ✓
Winthrop @ Vanderbilt +9.3 146.1 79% 63–77 ✓
Morgan State @ Portland +8.6 146.9 78% 63–74 ✓
Fairfield @ Sacred Heart -2.6 148.6 44% 71–61 ✓
Iona @ North Alabama -5.3 131.0 27% 81–65 ✓
Pepperdine @ UC Irvine +10.7 131.8 83% 48–82 ✓
Omaha @ Montana +0.7 141.8 50% 47–68 ✓
UC San Diego @ Sacramento State -3.1 141.5 35% 71–56 ✓
UT Arlington @ San Diego State +16.1 130.0 90% 62–68 ✓
Texas State @ Eastern Washington -2.9 144.9 38% 81–74 ✓
Temple @ Elon -2.6 136.6 39% 75–58 ✓
Green Bay @ Weber State +10.8 138.7 83% 58–68 ✓
Bryant @ Holy Cross -0.3 148.5 45% 78–62 ✓
Norfolk State @ Xavier +6.6 143.6 70% 48–88 ✓
Boston University @ Northern Illinois -6.6 126.6 27% 76–58 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Old Dominion -1.8 135.2 42% 71–63 ✓
Villanova @ Purdue +0.1 153.2 55% 74–80 ✓
Boise State @ Ole Miss -1.3 137.7 49% 60–50 ✓
St. Thomas @ SIU Edwardsville -2.7 144.6 38% 86–73 ✓
Georgia State @ High Point +0.7 147.7 53% 74–66 ✗
UT Martin @ North Dakota +0.1 145.5 49% 77–72 ✗
Ball State @ Massachusetts +3.0 154.8 66% 89–86 ✗
Air Force @ Bethune-Cookman -5.8 129.3 25% 73–65 ✓
Little Rock @ Sam Houston -6.3 137.8 26% 59–77 ✗
Utah State @ Oklahoma +3.5 146.2 67% 73–70 ✗
Tennessee State @ South Dakota +2.9 138.6 60% 66–83 ✓
Princeton @ Oregon State -0.6 139.2 39% 81–80 ✓
Navy @ Furman +11.8 144.6 84% 77–66 ✗
Alabama A&M @ UAB +16.4 153.0 88% 41–86 ✓
Morehead State @ Mississippi State +18.6 140.1 89% 46–66 ✓
Lamar @ Southern Miss -0.8 139.4 44% 75–82 ✗
Tennessee @ North Carolina -2.5 156.7 46% 89–72 ✓
Niagara @ Youngstown State +4.4 143.3 65% 58–53 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ UTSA +1.3 142.1 51% 77–58 ✗
Western Carolina @ Longwood +18.7 155.4 89% 64–53 ✗
Jackson State @ Marshall +4.3 144.7 64% 66–80 ✓
Southern @ Nebraska +3.8 145.6 61% 59–82 ✓
Merrimack @ Virginia Tech +16.8 127.3 88% 43–72 ✓
Houston Christian @ Denver +12.2 133.1 86% 61–74 ✓
Howard @ William & Mary -9.9 145.9 19% 82–76 ✓
Clemson @ West Virginia -1.8 138.7 42% 59–66 ✗
Boston College @ Rhode Island -1.3 130.3 46% 65–71 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Wofford +3.0 139.7 56% 52–70 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Florida International +2.1 123.0 56% 71–74 ✓
Florida State @ Loyola Marymount -3.7 140.7 36% 73–45 ✓
Colorado State @ Creighton +0.8 143.8 55% 95–81 ✗
Davidson @ East Carolina +0.0 142.1 53% 76–67 ✗
Grambling @ Iowa State +12.5 135.1 85% 47–82 ✓
Texas Southern @ NC State +9.1 142.7 80% 57–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.