Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +18 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | BU -12.4 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.1 (+14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -10.4 (-7.6) | 126.2 (+7.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -6.6 (-11.4) | 126.6 (+7.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -6.1 (-11.9) | 124.9 (+9.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -9.5 (-8.5) | 126.5 (+7.5) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 3-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-11 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#292) | 5.8 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#121) | 0.15 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#130) | 0.49 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#73) | 0.463 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.4% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 25.7% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.5% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 25.7% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.8% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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