Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | DEN -230 HCU +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +13 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -18.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -13.2 (-0.2) | 128.4 (+6.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -11.4 (+1.6) | 126.5 (+8.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -12.2 (+0.8) | 133.1 (+1.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -13.0 (-0.0) | 133.6 (+1.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2022 | DEN 93 – 83 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-8 |
| Home | 6-7 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-12 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 79.4 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#257) | -14.6 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#254) | -0.49 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#248) | -0.66 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.343 (#323) | 0.536 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 29.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 35.2% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 30.3% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 64.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 60.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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