Betting Lines
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | PORT -160 MORG +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PORT +11 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | PORT -12.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PORT -4.9 (+6.1) | 149.4 (-12.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PORT -8.6 (+2.4) | 146.9 (-9.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PORT -9.2 (+1.8) | 149.3 (-12.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PORT -9.4 (+1.6) | 146.3 (-9.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 13-15 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 7-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#223) | -7.4 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#226) | -0.60 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#234) | -0.84 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#292) | 0.445 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 20.6% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 61.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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