Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +16 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | IONA -6.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.0 (+21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -7.5 (-8.5) | 132.7 (+13.3) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -5.3 (-10.7) | 131.0 (+15.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -5.4 (-10.6) | 131.6 (+14.4) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -8.2 (-7.8) | 132.5 (+13.5) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 4-0 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#272) | 0.9 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#303) | 1.58 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.41 (#305) | 1.98 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#253) | 0.665 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 31.4% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.1% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.47 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 36.9% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 24.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 11.0% | 35.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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