Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UND -160 UTM +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +5 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | UTM -3.7 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UND -0.6 (-5.6) | 141.7 (+7.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -0.1 (-5.1) | 145.5 (+3.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -0.7 (-4.3) | 147.0 (+2.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -0.8 (-5.8) | 146.8 (+2.2) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 4-14 |
| Home | 4-11 | 5-8 |
| Away | 1-13 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -11.6 (#344) | -7.9 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#282) | -2.75 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#306) | -4.32 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.365 (#310) | 0.296 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 41.4% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 11.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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