Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | BCU +400 AF -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +8 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | AF -8.1 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.5 (+13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -4.2 (-3.8) | 128.2 (+9.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -5.8 (-2.2) | 129.3 (+8.7) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -6.6 (-1.4) | 130.1 (+7.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -5.3 (-2.7) | 128.0 (+10.0) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BCU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-13 |
| Home | 4-6 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-13 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.5 | 59.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 66.0 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#324) | -0.8 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#238) | 1.53 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#261) | 1.62 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#225) | 0.539 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BCU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 28.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 5.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 18.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 13.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 41.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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