Betting Lines
| Spread | SDAK -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +17 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | SDAK -4.1 (+12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (+17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDAK -2.9 (+14.1) | 138.6 (+10.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDAK -5.6 (+11.4) | 137.8 (+11.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDAK -4.0 (+13.0) | 138.3 (+10.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#336) | -6.3 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#77) | -2.03 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#101) | -3.33 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.705 (#17) | 0.292 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.0% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.9% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 29.2% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 9.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 81.1% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 33.9% |
Game Analysis
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