Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Under |
| Money | VT -2000 MRMK +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +29 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | VT -21.3 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 110.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -19.2 (+9.8) | 126.7 (-11.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -16.8 (+12.2) | 127.3 (-12.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -20.1 (+8.9) | 126.1 (-11.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -19.6 (+9.4) | 127.5 (-12.5) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-6 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 58.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#17) | 0.6 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#11) | 0.47 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.75 (#9) | -0.19 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#190) | 0.456 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 32.9% |
| 3PT% | 41.0% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 27.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 39.0% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 15.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 14.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.7% | 42.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 28.2% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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