Florida International
Panthers
74
–
71
OT
FINAL
Neutral
Jersey Mike's Classic
UNC Greensboro
Spartans
Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FIU +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | FIU -4.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 116.8 (+28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -0.7 (+3.7) | 125.0 (+20.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FIU -2.1 (+0.9) | 123.0 (+22.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FIU -2.1 (+0.9) | 124.9 (+20.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FIU -1.8 (+1.2) | 125.8 (+19.2) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#141) | -3.3 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.00 (#188) | 0.71 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#199) | 0.26 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#234) | 0.513 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 45.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.9% | 42.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 12.3% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 79.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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