Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +13 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | EKU -17.7 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EKU -11.7 (+1.3) | 139.7 (+1.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -10.9 (+2.1) | 141.9 (-0.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -11.5 (+1.5) | 140.4 (+0.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EKU -13.1 (-0.1) | 139.5 (+1.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#168) | -9.5 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#47) | -3.57 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.76 (#23) | -5.34 (#356) |
| RPI | 0.667 (#29) | 0.198 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 25.2% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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