Betting Lines
| Spread | ODU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ODU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +8 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | PENN -3.1 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -0.7 (-7.3) | 131.8 (+2.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -1.8 (-6.2) | 135.2 (-1.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -2.1 (-5.9) | 137.3 (-3.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -1.6 (-6.4) | 136.4 (-2.4) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ODU | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#290) | -3.2 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#220) | -0.41 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#212) | -0.73 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#123) | 0.477 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ODU | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 22.2% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.4% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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