Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | W&M +140 HOW -160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +6 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -14.3 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -8.2 (+2.2) | 144.0 (+14.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -9.9 (+3.9) | 145.9 (+12.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -10.8 (+4.8) | 145.5 (+12.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -11.1 (+5.1) | 145.2 (+12.8) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 16-13 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-5 |
| Home | 4-10 | 8-4 |
| Away | 1-14 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L10 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#337) | 3.6 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.69 (#343) | 0.10 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.05 (#343) | 0.21 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#283) | 0.416 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.8% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 46.3% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 27.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 59.5% |
| TOV% | 24.2% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 57.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 33.7% |
Game Analysis
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