Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRIN +1 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | PRIN -1.9 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -0.7 (-0.3) | 138.8 (+22.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRIN -0.6 (-0.4) | 139.2 (+21.8) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRIN -1.7 (+0.7) | 138.6 (+22.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRIN -0.6 (-0.4) | 142.9 (+18.1) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-28 | 23-7 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 12-2 |
| Home | 3-13 | 13-1 |
| Away | 0-12 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L18 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#263) | 5.4 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#314) | 1.55 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#285) | 2.50 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.366 (#309) | 0.723 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 12.7% |
Game Analysis
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