Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | YSU +110 NIA -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +5 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | YSU -4.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-31.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YSU -2.6 (-7.6) | 137.9 (-26.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YSU -4.4 (-9.4) | 143.3 (-32.3) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | YSU -4.7 (-9.7) | 143.2 (-32.2) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YSU -4.3 (-9.3) | 141.0 (-30.0) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YSU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 12-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-7 | 7-4 |
| Away | 6-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 66.0 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#190) | 2.6 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#201) | -0.03 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#192) | 0.31 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#275) | 0.477 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YSU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 41.9% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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