Tire tracks all across your back - I can see you've had your fun. "Crosstown Traffic"- Jimi Hendrix
The Nest · November 21, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread UCSD -4.5 Away covered
O/U 141.0 Under
Money SAC +170 / UCSD -195
Model Predictions
Spread Total SAC win
Actual UCSD +15 127 Lost
Massey UCSD -5.4 (-9.6)
Massey Totals 140.0 (-13.0)
Bradley-Terry 53%
Weighted B-T 28%
Baseline Plus ML UCSD -2.5 (-12.5) 138.3 (-11.3) 46%
Baseline ML UCSD -4.1 (-10.9) 140.4 (-13.4) 42%
Baseline Tuned ML UCSD -3.1 (-11.9) 141.5 (-14.5) 35%
Efficiency Plus ML UCSD -3.4 (-11.6) 137.6 (-10.6) 41%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 13, 2024 UCSD 6454 SAC
Dec 19, 2023 UCSD 8352 SAC
Nov 13, 2022 SAC 6555 UCSD

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SAC UCSD
Overall 11-18 13-16
Conference 6-14 0-0
Home 6-8 9-4
Away 4-9 4-11
Neutral 1-1 0-1
Last 5 1-1 2-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 64.5 68.4
Avg Pts Against 71.2 71.6
Massey -5.5 (#278) 7.8 (#47)
Bradley-Terry 0.78 (#118) 2.40 (#24)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.75 (#143) 4.00 (#19)
RPI 0.547 (#124) 0.621 (#62)
Shooting & Four Factors SAC UCSD
FG% 34.2% 49.0%
3PT% 25.6% 44.7%
REB / G 28.5 36.0
OREB / G 7.0 4.5
AST / TO 0.55 0.85
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 38.7% 59.9%
TOV% 14.9% 22.7%
ORB% 17.5% 17.0%
FT Rate 25.2% 41.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.8% 41.5%
Opp TOV% 18.9% 16.9%
DRB% 58.1% 82.9%
Opp FT Rate 34.8% 20.3%

Game Analysis

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