Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
| Money | SAC +170 UCSD -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +15 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSD -5.4 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -2.5 (-12.5) | 138.3 (-11.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -4.1 (-10.9) | 140.4 (-13.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -3.1 (-11.9) | 141.5 (-14.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -3.4 (-11.6) | 137.6 (-10.6) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2024 | UCSD 64 – 54 SAC |
| Dec 19, 2023 | UCSD 83 – 52 SAC |
| Nov 13, 2022 | SAC 65 – 55 UCSD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAC | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 0-0 |
| Home | 6-8 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#278) | 7.8 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#118) | 2.40 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#143) | 4.00 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#124) | 0.621 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAC | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.2% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.6% | 44.7% |
| REB / G | 28.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 4.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.7% | 59.9% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 17.5% | 17.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 41.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 41.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 58.1% | 82.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.8% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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