Betting Lines
| Spread | SAC -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | SAC -120 UCSD +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +31 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSD -1.1 (-29.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -2.5 (-28.5) | 138.1 (-3.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -0.5 (-30.5) | 136.6 (-1.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -0.4 (-30.6) | 137.5 (-2.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAC -0.4 (-31.4) | 138.8 (-3.8) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2024 | UCSD 64 – 54 SAC |
| Nov 13, 2022 | SAC 65 – 55 UCSD |
| Nov 21, 2021 | UCSD 71 – 56 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAC | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-24 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 15-5 |
| Home | 6-8 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-13 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#293) | -1.1 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#307) | -0.78 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#292) | -0.90 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#316) | 0.443 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAC | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 24.5% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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