This will be our year, took a long time to come "This Will Be Our Year" - The Zombies
The Nest · December 19, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread SAC -1.0 Away covered
O/U 139.5 Under
Money SAC -120 / UCSD +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total SAC win
Actual UCSD +31 135 Lost
Massey UCSD -1.1 (-29.9)
Massey Totals 138.9 (-3.9)
Bradley-Terry 51%
Weighted B-T 56%
Baseline Plus ML UCSD -2.5 (-28.5) 138.1 (-3.1) 48%
Baseline ML UCSD -0.5 (-30.5) 136.6 (-1.6) 51%
Baseline Tuned ML UCSD -0.4 (-30.6) 137.5 (-2.5) 51%
Efficiency Plus ML SAC -0.4 (-31.4) 138.8 (-3.8) 48%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 13, 2024 UCSD 6454 SAC
Nov 13, 2022 SAC 6555 UCSD
Nov 21, 2021 UCSD 7156 SAC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SAC UCSD
Overall 10-24 21-12
Conference 4-14 15-5
Home 6-8 14-2
Away 2-13 7-7
Neutral 2-3 0-3
Last 5 1-4 0-5
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 64.2 74.7
Avg Pts Against 71.3 69.9
Massey -6.9 (#293) -1.1 (#190)
Bradley-Terry -1.69 (#307) -0.78 (#254)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.75 (#292) -0.90 (#247)
RPI 0.408 (#316) 0.443 (#269)
Shooting & Four Factors SAC UCSD
FG% 39.7% 43.0%
3PT% 31.2% 29.1%
REB / G 36.6 32.8
OREB / G 12.2 9.1
AST / TO 0.74 0.96
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.9% 48.7%
TOV% 24.5% 15.7%
ORB% 34.3% 26.7%
FT Rate 24.7% 22.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.3% 47.7%
Opp TOV% 14.8% 16.1%
DRB% 74.4% 63.9%
Opp FT Rate 24.9% 19.5%

Game Analysis

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