See my tailor, he's called Simon, I know it's going to fit. "Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll" - Ian Dury
Reed Green Coliseum · November 21, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread USM -4.5 Home covered
O/U 133.0 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total USM win
Actual USM +7 157 Won
Massey LAM -2.0 (+9.0)
Massey Totals 137.5 (+19.5)
Bradley-Terry 90%
Weighted B-T 89%
Baseline Plus ML LAM -1.9 (+8.9) 139.7 (+17.3) 34%
Baseline ML LAM -0.7 (+7.7) 140.6 (+16.4) 30%
Baseline Tuned ML LAM -0.8 (+7.8) 139.4 (+17.6) 44%
Efficiency Plus ML USM -1.0 (+6.0) 140.9 (+16.1) 48%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 18, 2024 LAM 6965 USM
Dec 19, 2023 USM 8279 LAM
Dec 14, 2022 USM 9165 LAM
Dec 10, 2022 USM 9559 LAM
Dec 16, 2020 USM 6663 LAM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings USM LAM
Neutral 3-1 0-0
Last 5 0-2 0-3
Massey -13.9 (#350) -3.9 (#254)
Bradley-Terry -1.74 (#315) -2.14 (#331)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.56 (#313) -2.35 (#303)
RPI 0.521 (#145) 0.411 (#277)
Shooting & Four Factors USM LAM
FG% 33.9% 41.6%
3PT% 12.5% 37.5%
REB / G 32.0 32.3
OREB / G 7.0 9.3
AST / TO 0.37 1.37
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 36.1% 48.3%
TOV% 27.1% 15.0%
ORB% 17.5% 24.8%
FT Rate 11.3% 15.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.8% 57.9%
Opp TOV% 23.5% 15.9%
DRB% 60.2% 67.0%
Opp FT Rate 16.9% 14.8%

Game Analysis

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