Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +7 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | LAM -2.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (+19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -1.0 (+6.0) | 140.9 (+16.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAM -0.8 (+7.8) | 139.4 (+17.6) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAM -0.7 (+7.7) | 140.6 (+16.4) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAM -1.9 (+8.9) | 139.7 (+17.3) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2024 | LAM 69 – 65 USM |
| Dec 19, 2023 | USM 82 – 79 LAM |
| Dec 14, 2022 | USM 91 – 65 LAM |
| Dec 10, 2022 | USM 95 – 59 LAM |
| Dec 16, 2020 | USM 66 – 63 LAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-3 |
| Massey | -13.9 (#350) | -3.9 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#315) | -2.14 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.56 (#313) | -2.35 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#145) | 0.411 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.9% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 12.5% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.37 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 36.1% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 27.1% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 17.5% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 11.3% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 57.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 60.2% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 14.8% |
Game Analysis
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