Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LAM +700 USM -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +26 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -18.8 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -11.8 (-14.2) | 141.7 (+14.3) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -12.0 (-14.0) | 141.3 (+14.7) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -15.8 (-10.2) | 141.3 (+14.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -14.8 (-11.2) | 139.6 (+16.4) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2024 | LAM 69 – 65 USM |
| Dec 19, 2023 | USM 82 – 79 LAM |
| Dec 10, 2022 | USM 95 – 59 LAM |
| Nov 21, 2021 | USM 82 – 75 LAM |
| Dec 16, 2020 | USM 66 – 63 LAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAM | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 6-9 | 15-0 |
| Away | 2-12 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 67.5 |
| Massey | -12.5 (#348) | 11.5 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.65 (#340) | 2.67 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.24 (#349) | 3.63 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.369 (#347) | 0.607 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAM | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 24.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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