Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -3.0 Push |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
| Money | LAM +140 USM -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +3 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | LAM -8.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAM -3.1 (-6.1) | 149.6 (+11.4) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAM -5.1 (-8.1) | 150.8 (+10.2) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAM -5.8 (-8.8) | 151.3 (+9.7) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAM -5.0 (-8.0) | 150.0 (+11.0) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2024 | LAM 69 – 65 USM |
| Dec 14, 2022 | USM 91 – 65 LAM |
| Dec 10, 2022 | USM 95 – 59 LAM |
| Nov 21, 2021 | USM 82 – 75 LAM |
| Dec 16, 2020 | USM 66 – 63 LAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAM | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-0 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#201) | -5.5 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#253) | -0.44 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#238) | -0.89 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#241) | 0.435 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAM | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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