I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
Montagne Center · December 19, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread USM -3.0 Push
O/U 149.0 Over
Money LAM +140 / USM -165
Model Predictions
Spread Total LAM win
Actual USM +3 161 Lost
Massey LAM -8.2 (-11.2)
Massey Totals 157.0 (+4.0)
Bradley-Terry 65%
Weighted B-T 77%
Baseline Plus ML LAM -5.0 (-8.0) 150.0 (+11.0) 67%
Baseline ML LAM -5.8 (-8.8) 151.3 (+9.7) 69%
Baseline Tuned ML LAM -5.1 (-8.1) 150.8 (+10.2) 70%
Efficiency Plus ML LAM -3.1 (-6.1) 149.6 (+11.4) 53%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 18, 2024 LAM 6965 USM
Dec 14, 2022 USM 9165 LAM
Dec 10, 2022 USM 9559 LAM
Nov 21, 2021 USM 8275 LAM
Dec 16, 2020 USM 6663 LAM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LAM USM
Overall 19-14 16-16
Conference 12-6 9-9
Home 11-3 11-3
Away 5-11 5-9
Neutral 3-0 0-4
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 76.2 69.9
Avg Pts Against 73.4 72.9
Massey -2.0 (#201) -5.5 (#274)
Bradley-Terry -0.78 (#253) -0.44 (#223)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.80 (#238) -0.89 (#245)
RPI 0.461 (#241) 0.435 (#283)
Shooting & Four Factors LAM USM
FG% 43.7% 41.2%
3PT% 40.9% 34.7%
REB / G 37.2 34.4
OREB / G 12.6 11.9
AST / TO 1.23 1.15
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.1% 46.8%
TOV% 18.2% 16.4%
ORB% 33.5% 32.2%
FT Rate 25.7% 24.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.0% 53.8%
Opp TOV% 18.9% 19.8%
DRB% 69.4% 66.7%
Opp FT Rate 31.4% 24.4%

Game Analysis

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