Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | USM -2000 LAM +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +36 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | USM -27.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -19.4 (+16.6) | 138.5 (+15.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -21.6 (+14.4) | 141.6 (+12.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -22.9 (+13.1) | 140.2 (+13.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -22.5 (+13.5) | 137.2 (+16.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2024 | LAM 69 – 65 USM |
| Dec 19, 2023 | USM 82 – 79 LAM |
| Dec 14, 2022 | USM 91 – 65 LAM |
| Nov 21, 2021 | USM 82 – 75 LAM |
| Dec 16, 2020 | USM 66 – 63 LAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-0 | 6-9 |
| Away | 8-7 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#42) | -11.5 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#14) | -3.09 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.90 (#14) | -5.12 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#14) | 0.321 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 22.8% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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