I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
Reed Green Coliseum · December 10, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread USM -19.5 Home covered
O/U 132.5 Over
Money USM -2000 / LAM +1300
Model Predictions
Spread Total USM win
Actual USM +36 154 Won
Massey USM -27.2 (+8.8)
Massey Totals 136.4 (+17.6)
Bradley-Terry 100%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML USM -22.5 (+13.5) 137.2 (+16.8) 90%
Baseline ML USM -22.9 (+13.1) 140.2 (+13.8) 91%
Baseline Tuned ML USM -21.6 (+14.4) 141.6 (+12.4) 91%
Efficiency Plus ML USM -19.4 (+16.6) 138.5 (+15.5) 90%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 18, 2024 LAM 6965 USM
Dec 19, 2023 USM 8279 LAM
Dec 14, 2022 USM 9165 LAM
Nov 21, 2021 USM 8275 LAM
Dec 16, 2020 USM 6663 LAM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings USM LAM
Overall 25-8 9-22
Conference 14-4 5-13
Home 15-0 6-9
Away 8-7 2-12
Neutral 2-1 1-1
Last 5 4-1 1-4
Streak L2 L4
Avg Pts For 72.4 66.1
Avg Pts Against 67.5 75.9
Massey 10.4 (#42) -11.5 (#340)
Bradley-Terry 2.84 (#14) -3.09 (#348)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.90 (#14) -5.12 (#353)
RPI 0.646 (#14) 0.321 (#359)
Shooting & Four Factors USM LAM
FG% 46.1% 42.9%
3PT% 32.8% 22.8%
REB / G 35.3 33.3
OREB / G 10.2 10.8
AST / TO 1.25 1.14
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.7% 46.5%
TOV% 16.0% 19.6%
ORB% 30.7% 30.4%
FT Rate 20.9% 16.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.4% 53.3%
Opp TOV% 22.6% 19.1%
DRB% 75.5% 65.2%
Opp FT Rate 23.1% 19.2%

Game Analysis

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