Betting Lines
| Spread | LAM -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | LAM -210 USM +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +3 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | LAM -9.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAM -4.7 (-7.7) | 125.7 (+3.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAM -5.5 (-8.5) | 130.5 (-1.5) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAM -6.8 (-9.8) | 127.5 (+1.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAM -5.7 (-8.7) | 127.0 (+2.0) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2024 | LAM 69 – 65 USM |
| Dec 19, 2023 | USM 82 – 79 LAM |
| Dec 14, 2022 | USM 91 – 65 LAM |
| Dec 10, 2022 | USM 95 – 59 LAM |
| Nov 21, 2021 | USM 82 – 75 LAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAM | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#277) | -11.8 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#207) | -2.69 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#217) | -3.51 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#126) | 0.402 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAM | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.1% | 35.1% |
| 3PT% | 24.6% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.8% | 41.8% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 12.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 80.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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