Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SHSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +18 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | LR -7.9 (+25.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -3.0 (+21.0) | 135.3 (+0.7) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -6.3 (+24.3) | 137.8 (-1.8) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LR -6.9 (+24.9) | 136.1 (-0.1) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -6.1 (+24.1) | 137.7 (-1.7) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SHSU | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 9-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 3-11 |
| Home | 11-2 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.5 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.3 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -12.0 (#346) | -4.1 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.24 (#359) | 0.56 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -8.24 (#359) | 0.76 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#351) | 0.562 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SHSU | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.9% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 17.6% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.45 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.7% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 15.4% |
| FT Rate | 11.9% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 59.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 26.9% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.4% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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