Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU -1000 TXSO +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +8 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -10.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -8.7 (-0.7) | 135.7 (-13.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -9.1 (-1.1) | 142.7 (-20.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -9.8 (-1.8) | 143.3 (-21.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -10.7 (-2.7) | 141.4 (-19.4) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2025 | NCSU 108 – 72 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-10 | 7-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#149) | -1.8 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#137) | -1.68 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#99) | -2.55 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#114) | 0.404 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 23.7% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 25.3% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 42.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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