Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +21 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -0.7 (+20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-25.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -3.4 (+17.6) | 137.5 (-22.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -0.7 (+20.3) | 141.8 (-26.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -2.1 (+18.9) | 142.9 (-27.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -2.1 (+18.9) | 142.5 (-27.5) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-10 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 84.4 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#319) | -1.2 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#292) | -1.45 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#289) | -2.31 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.365 (#310) | 0.328 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 18.1% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 12.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.9% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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