Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +20 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -20.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (-23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -15.3 (+4.7) | 129.4 (-17.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -18.6 (+1.4) | 140.1 (-28.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -24.2 (-4.2) | 139.4 (-27.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -22.2 (-2.2) | 137.3 (-25.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 64.4 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#36) | -3.0 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#132) | -0.67 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#137) | -0.80 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#250) | 0.451 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.0% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 47.4% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.1% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 28.2% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 57.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 10.6% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 79.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.5% | 10.0% |
Game Analysis
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