Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | LMU +250 FSU -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +28 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | FSU -5.8 (-22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -5.9 (-22.1) | 136.6 (-18.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -3.7 (-24.3) | 140.7 (-22.7) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -2.9 (-25.1) | 142.9 (-24.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -4.4 (-23.6) | 141.8 (-23.8) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 3-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 6-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#196) | 4.7 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#164) | 0.31 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#139) | 0.53 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.705 (#16) | 0.577 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 41.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 25.2% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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