Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +6 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -26.1 (-20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -21.2 (-15.2) | 129.2 (+0.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -16.1 (-10.1) | 130.0 (+0.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -18.1 (-12.1) | 130.3 (-0.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -18.9 (-12.9) | 132.3 (-2.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-9 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 7-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.1 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#120) | -15.0 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#108) | -2.52 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#109) | -3.50 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.670 (#26) | 0.240 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 20.4% | 20.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 32.9% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 59.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.