Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +6 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -6.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -2.9 (+3.1) | 146.0 (+8.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -3.0 (+3.0) | 141.6 (+12.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -3.8 (+2.2) | 143.8 (+10.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -0.4 (+5.6) | 146.9 (+7.1) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-5 |
| Home | 6-6 | 9-2 |
| Away | 3-15 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#238) | -1.9 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#335) | -0.94 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.44 (#349) | -1.17 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.374 (#305) | 0.503 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 37.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 25.8% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 42.0% |
| TOV% | 26.3% | 27.7% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 62.9% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 48.0% |
Game Analysis
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