Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +1 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | WCU -0.4 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -0.0 (-1.0) | 148.4 (+10.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -0.9 (-1.9) | 146.6 (+12.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -0.8 (-1.8) | 146.7 (+12.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -0.3 (-1.3) | 148.6 (+10.4) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-16 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#299) | -6.5 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#158) | -1.33 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#158) | -2.05 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#192) | 0.361 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 23.1% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.