Betting Lines
| Spread | SIUE -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | SIUE +109 STMN -129 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIUE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +13 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | STMN -4.9 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -4.7 (-8.3) | 143.0 (+16.0) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -2.7 (-10.3) | 144.6 (+14.4) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -2.3 (-10.7) | 144.7 (+14.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -2.9 (-10.1) | 143.1 (+15.9) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIUE | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-5 | 5-8 |
| Away | 3-13 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#176) | 4.8 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#160) | 0.10 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#173) | 0.62 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#206) | 0.388 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIUE | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 40.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 1.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 11.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 59.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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