Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -1600 NORF +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +40 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -7.8 (+32.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -8.3 (+31.7) | 136.4 (-0.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -6.6 (+33.4) | 143.6 (-7.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -5.7 (+34.3) | 144.0 (-8.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -7.8 (+32.2) | 143.7 (-7.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 12-2 |
| Home | 16-5 | 11-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 66.6 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#159) | 0.8 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#68) | 1.56 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#84) | 1.96 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.751 (#6) | 0.397 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 51.2% |
| 3PT% | 23.8% | 42.9% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 39.8% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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