Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
| Money | LONG -400 WCU +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +11 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | LONG -22.8 (-33.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (-40.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -14.6 (-25.6) | 149.4 (-32.4) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -18.7 (-29.7) | 155.4 (-38.4) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -21.8 (-32.8) | 152.9 (-35.9) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -22.3 (-33.3) | 152.7 (-35.7) | 88% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#45) | -6.5 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#100) | -1.33 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#86) | -2.05 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#56) | 0.361 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 7.4% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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