Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +5 | 205 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -13.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.5 (+44.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -7.2 (-2.2) | 155.2 (+49.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -7.8 (-2.8) | 153.0 (+52.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -9.0 (-4.0) | 156.0 (+49.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -9.0 (-4.0) | 157.9 (+47.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-6 | 7-6 |
| Away | 1-11 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 79.4 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#226) | -7.9 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#260) | -2.39 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#254) | -3.79 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#278) | 0.375 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.52 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 11.4% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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