Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | FUR -450 NAVY +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +11 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | FUR -16.1 (-27.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -10.3 (-21.3) | 142.0 (+1.0) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -11.8 (-22.8) | 144.6 (-1.6) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -13.2 (-24.2) | 144.9 (-1.9) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -11.4 (-22.4) | 141.7 (+1.3) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-8 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 60.8 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#53) | -0.6 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#29) | 0.34 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#27) | 0.44 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#87) | 0.519 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 42.3% | 24.1% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 24.8% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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