Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EWU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +7 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -4.7 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -1.6 (-5.4) | 142.7 (+12.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -2.9 (-4.1) | 144.9 (+10.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -2.3 (-4.7) | 146.6 (+8.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -3.1 (-3.9) | 145.8 (+9.2) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EWU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 21-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-3 |
| Home | 9-3 | 12-1 |
| Away | 8-11 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#193) | 3.7 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#195) | -0.05 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#241) | -0.77 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#260) | 0.497 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EWU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 35.2% |
Game Analysis
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