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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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18–15 on winners spread MAE 11.4 33 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
St. Bonaventure @ Marquette	-0.3	141.1	49%	70–54	✓
Utah @ Tulsa	-9.3	136.8	20%	72–58	✓
Louisiana @ Indiana	+6.4	132.1	65%	44–76	✓
Northeastern @ Southern Illinois	+0.3	122.9	50%	59–47	✗
Missouri @ SMU	+7.4	137.9	76%	80–75	✗
Florida A&M @ Miami	+7.0	141.3	75%	59–86	✓
New Mexico State @ Indiana State	+1.1	142.3	52%	80–66	✗
Michigan @ Arizona	+5.5	144.3	72%	62–80	✓
Northern Colorado @ California Baptist	+4.4	139.9	65%	70–74	✓
Wichita State @ UNLV	-5.8	128.5	27%	74–73	✓
Northern Illinois @ Little Rock	-2.0	134.3	42%	60–67	✗
Evansville @ Rice	+6.2	130.5	77%	104–109	✓
Charlotte @ Toledo	-2.2	140.3	36%	86–98	✗
Kent State @ James Madison	+2.6	139.1	63%	74–69	✗
Bradley @ Duquesne	+0.7	129.7	51%	70–78	✓
Boston University @ Sam Houston	-7.5	132.1	23%	72–59	✓
Oakland @ Vermont	-2.0	123.1	40%	63–61	✓
Texas A&M @ Wisconsin	-0.5	131.8	43%	58–69	✗
Wright State @ George Washington	+1.6	143.2	58%	63–74	✓
Tulane @ Drexel	+2.0	136.5	59%	90–87	✗
Nicholls @ Cal Poly	-7.1	126.3	23%	75–72	✓
Northwestern State @ UL Monroe	-1.4	146.8	43%	66–96	✗
Brown @ Colorado	+5.3	148.9	72%	52–54	✓
Butler @ Houston	+7.5	132.0	79%	52–70	✓
Fordham @ Akron	+4.2	138.6	69%	63–43	✗
Idaho @ Utah Valley	+12.6	155.7	86%	45–83	✓
Murray State @ East Tennessee State	-6.8	132.5	23%	58–66	✗
Creighton @ Southern Illinois	-0.9	130.9	42%	66–64	✓
Seton Hall @ Ohio State	-9.7	142.0	19%	76–79	✗
Loyola Marymount @ SMU	+9.2	139.0	78%	76–70	✗
Illinois @ Cincinnati	-5.0	136.3	31%	51–71	✗
Cornell @ Penn State	-0.5	140.6	40%	74–85	✗
Sacred Heart @ Stony Brook	+6.5	140.6	71%	72–75	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.