Betting Lines
| Spread | WRST -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | GW +280 WRST -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +11 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | GW -2.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WRST -0.3 (+11.3) | 144.3 (-7.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -1.6 (+9.4) | 143.2 (-6.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GW -0.6 (+10.4) | 143.9 (-6.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -0.2 (+10.8) | 145.3 (-8.3) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 15-7 |
| Home | 8-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#262) | -7.3 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#299) | -1.13 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.70 (#310) | -1.55 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#251) | 0.450 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.0% | 42.5% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 17.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 59.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 61.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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