Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +14 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -2.7 (-16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -1.4 (-15.4) | 139.7 (+6.3) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -1.1 (-15.1) | 142.3 (+3.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -0.9 (-14.9) | 144.4 (+1.6) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -0.7 (-14.7) | 141.6 (+4.4) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 14-4 |
| Home | 8-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-11 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 64.9 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#94) | 2.4 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#153) | 1.78 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#149) | 2.74 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#132) | 0.766 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 20.7% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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