Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OAK +2 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | OAK -2.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 116.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OAK -0.6 (-1.4) | 126.4 (-2.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OAK -2.0 (-0.0) | 123.1 (+0.9) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OAK -1.4 (-0.6) | 124.6 (-0.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OAK -1.3 (-0.7) | 129.5 (-5.5) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 12-7 |
| Home | 16-0 | 10-3 |
| Away | 10-4 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.1 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#115) | 5.7 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#118) | 2.64 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#124) | 3.46 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#96) | 0.742 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 20.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 11.1% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 18.0% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.4% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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