Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +3 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | DREX -2.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (+44.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -1.3 (-4.3) | 129.6 (+47.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -2.0 (-5.0) | 136.5 (+40.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -2.2 (-5.2) | 135.9 (+41.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -1.3 (-4.3) | 133.6 (+43.4) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-14 | 14-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#167) | -2.3 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#104) | -2.37 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#139) | -3.75 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#97) | 0.299 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 44.4% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 79.7% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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