Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | SMU -180 LMU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +6 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -14.0 (-20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -11.0 (-17.0) | 142.0 (+4.0) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -9.2 (-15.2) | 139.0 (+7.0) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -9.6 (-15.6) | 141.3 (+4.7) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -10.0 (-16.0) | 142.0 (+4.0) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 3-12 |
| Home | 17-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#66) | -7.7 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#183) | -0.93 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#196) | -1.54 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#281) | 0.526 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 43.8 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 25.2% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.3% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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