Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Under |
| Money | SIU -135 NE +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NE +12 | 106 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -0.2 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 113.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -0.1 (-12.1) | 122.3 (-16.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -0.3 (-12.3) | 122.9 (-16.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -0.3 (-12.3) | 123.8 (-17.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -0.0 (-12.0) | 123.9 (-17.9) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 2-16 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-8 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 64.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.6 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#127) | 2.4 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#163) | 0.70 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#199) | 0.85 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#163) | 0.511 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 24.2% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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