Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | SHSU +105 BU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SHSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +13 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | BU -12.2 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -6.7 (-6.3) | 127.8 (+3.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -7.5 (-5.5) | 132.1 (-1.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -7.8 (-5.2) | 132.4 (-1.4) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -8.3 (-4.7) | 130.1 (+0.9) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SHSU | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.5 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.3 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#277) | 6.5 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#315) | 0.85 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.44 (#332) | 1.62 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#286) | 0.484 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SHSU | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.9% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 10.6% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.8% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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