Betting Lines
| Spread | ULM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | ULM -145 NWST +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +30 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | NWST -4.5 (+34.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NWST -0.4 (+30.4) | 143.5 (+18.5) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NWST -1.4 (+31.4) | 146.8 (+15.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NWST -0.6 (+30.6) | 147.4 (+14.6) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -0.5 (+30.5) | 145.8 (+16.2) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2024 | ULM 65 – 63 NWST |
| Nov 29, 2023 | ULM 74 – 70 NWST |
| Dec 10, 2022 | NWST 91 – 73 ULM |
| Dec 4, 2021 | ULM 84 – 71 NWST |
| Dec 6, 2020 | ULM 92 – 83 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 6-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 82.6 |
| Massey | -16.8 (#356) | -12.3 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#208) | -2.03 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#207) | -2.90 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#118) | 0.417 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.3% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 22.2% | 24.1% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.37 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.2% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 27.6% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 19.2% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 10.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.1% | 59.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 60.9% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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