Betting Lines
| Spread | NWST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | NWST -333 ULM +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +18 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | NWST -19.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NWST -12.4 (+5.6) | 140.2 (+23.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NWST -15.0 (+3.0) | 143.0 (+21.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NWST -15.5 (+2.5) | 142.7 (+21.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -15.2 (+2.8) | 142.0 (+22.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2024 | ULM 65 – 63 NWST |
| Nov 29, 2023 | ULM 74 – 70 NWST |
| Dec 4, 2021 | ULM 84 – 71 NWST |
| Nov 22, 2021 | ULM 96 – 66 NWST |
| Dec 6, 2020 | ULM 92 – 83 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-3 | 7-8 |
| Away | 10-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 63.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#155) | -13.0 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#40) | -2.87 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#70) | -3.55 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#18) | 0.365 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 35.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 41.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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