Betting Lines
| Spread | NWST -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | NWST -170 ULM +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +9 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | NWST -5.8 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (+20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NWST -1.5 (-10.5) | 145.7 (+29.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NWST -1.7 (-10.7) | 148.1 (+26.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -0.3 (-9.3) | 148.8 (+26.2) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2024 | ULM 65 – 63 NWST |
| Nov 29, 2023 | ULM 74 – 70 NWST |
| Dec 10, 2022 | NWST 91 – 73 ULM |
| Dec 4, 2021 | ULM 84 – 71 NWST |
| Nov 22, 2021 | ULM 96 – 66 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#232) | -3.6 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#271) | -0.49 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.77 (#274) | -0.81 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#194) | 0.531 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 25.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 15.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 9.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 55.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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